Putin’s (possible) visit to SA is a point of multiple (potential) fractures

With the government expected to soon decide whether to host Russian President Vladimir Putin on South African soil, there are indications that some in the ANC would prefer to avoid a huge confrontation on the issue. This may help it decide on a face-saving exercise that would avoid SA having to host Putin and the inevitable fallout that would follow.  

Also, it may not be in Russia’s longer-term interests to push our government into a corner, which means that Putin may not force the issue either. Ahead of the incoming train smash, it is important to examine the costs and benefits of hosting or not hosting Putin. 

This weekend, the Sunday Times quoted ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula as saying that Putin “should not feel belittled” if his invitation to the BRICS summit of heads of state is withdrawn. A committee chaired by Deputy President Paul Mashatile is due to report back this week on its recommendations about how to resolve the complex issue.

It appears, though, that the final decision will be made by the Cabinet, and ultimately President Cyril Ramaphosa.

He will be well aware of the inherent conflict here. It is obvious that South Africa does not have the military power to arrest Putin. And it would probably not be in our longer-term interest to try.

But, as it is impossible to change our laws that domesticate the Rome Statute before the summit, Ramaphosa as host to Putin would break the law based on the very Constitution he famously negotiated.

There is of course a huge cost to disinviting Putin.

It is embarrassing for a leader to issue an invitation to another leader and then withdraw it. As any child knows, you cannot invite someone to a birthday party and then disinvite them without seriously damaging the relationship.

Worse, South Africa could be accused by some of not being up to the job of hosting a BRICS summit. The fact that we have the smallest economy of the BRICS nations may only emphasise this sentiment.

Then there are ideological issues and questions about “where we really stand”.

Some in BRICS clearly feel the organisation’s reason to exist is to serve as a counterweight to the West. For some in the government and the ANC, South Africa failing to host Putin would be acquiescing to the West and helping the US in its quest against Russia.

Reputational damage

One way or the other, South Africa’s reputation among the BRICS nations (or at least their leaders) and the rest of the world would be damaged.

There are limits to how far this argument can go, though.

Brazil is one of the founding members of the International Criminal Court. And while the way Brazil domesticated the Rome Statute into its law is different to the situation here, it is likely that some in Brazil will have sympathy for the position our government finds itself in — even though Brazilian President Lula da Silva has been sharply critical of Nato’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.